- In depth market analysis is first to track deal flow, future investment intent and project pipeline for Nature-based Solutions in Brazil.
- USD $3.91bn worth of deals announced since 2022, with nearly half in 2025 alone.
- Asset managers and banks surveyed indicated intent to allocate a further USD $10,4bn by 2027, a 5x increase on current levels for the investors surveyed.
- Leading project developers also report plans to more than double the size of their absorptive capacity by the end of 2027, with requirements to raise and deploy $6.1bn by the end of 2027, demonstrating the strength of the pipeline and potential for scale up.
- The growing market in Brazil provides a blueprint for global efforts to scale nature finance, with evidence of growing momentum in other major markets.
São Paulo, Brazil – 8 November 2025 – New analysis of the Nature-based Solutions (NbS) sector in Brazil – one of the world’s most important reserves of natural capital – reveals an increasingly sophisticated market, with a robust project pipeline that is now attracting a diverse and growing pool of capital from both international and domestic asset managers and banks.
Capital for Climate, a climate finance investment accelerator, has tracked over $3.91bn of investments into Nature-based Solutions announced in Brazil since 2022, with nearly half in 2025 alone.
Future intent to allocate capital is also strong and growing, with a 5x increase in investor engagement compared to the last two years. According to a survey of 33 major asset managers and financial institutions operating in Brazil, conducted by Deloitte Brazil and Capital for Climate, investors intend to allocate USD $10,4bn to NbS in Brazil by the end of 2027, amounting to USD $18,8 billion through to 2030.
These amounts exceed the USD $5 billion stretch target for The ‘COP30 Brazil NbS Capital Mobilization’ set by Capital for Climate in early 2023 and reflects expansion of an increasingly high quality pipeline of investable projects and growing investor confidence in Brazil’s Nature-based Solutions sector. A parallel survey from the same report showed that 32 leading NbS project developers found that they are now seeking USD $6,1 billion for their projects by the same period. This represents an environment conducive to growth, suggesting the market may be broader than initially projected.
Tony Lent, Co-founder at Capital for Climate, said: “What we’re seeing now in [NbS] is very rapid growth. Average deal sizes have doubled in the last three years, a 30% year on year growth. We found that overall capital demand and supply are roughly in balance – the challenge is customising a capital stack to the investable pipeline. The momentum in the NbS market shows that Brazil is leading on the twin climate and biodiversity imperatives. [Brazil is] positioned to deliver market rate returns in the bioeconomy while achieving the impact targets of its ecological transition plan.”
Investors expanding scale and participation
A previous survey conducted by Deloitte Brazil and C4C in 2024 with more than 40 participants indicated that Institutional Investors and Companies are increasingly seeking long-term value in assets that are both deforestation-free and resilient to climate change across a range of NbS strategies, including regenerative agriculture and forest restoration.
Private equity and venture capital funds focused on NbS reported average target averaging 21.4% over a holding period of approximately 10 years, while private credit and debt instruments reported average target returns of 12% over a 6-year maturity.
Ms. Hoon Ling Min, Director of Investments, GenZero, said: “Investing in natural capital is essential to achieving both climate impact and financial resilience. Nature-based solutions not only deliver measurable carbon benefits, but also help safeguard biodiversity, support local livelihoods, and strengthen ecosystem resilience. The growing investor momentum reflects a broader recognition that protecting and restoring nature is integral to long-term value creation.”
Luiz Paulo Assis, Partner at Deloitte Brazil, said: “Brazil is uniquely positioned to lead in nature-based investments, driven by its globally competitive agriculture and the vast restoration potential of its diverse biomes. As new financial instruments emerge to help mitigate investor risk and project pipelines continue to develop, nature is increasingly being recognised as a viable asset class for institutional capital.”
A case in point is Caaporã Group, which has already restored more than 8.000 hectares of the Cerrado and Amazonia between 2021 and 2025 across various territories in Tocantins, Mato Grosso and Bahia states. By 2028, the group plans to add more 7,000 hectares of silvopastoral systems to their asset base.
Luis Fernando Laranja, Co-Founder of Caaporã, said: “Our biggest success has been moving the investor conversation beyond short-term risk and toward long-term asset value. What we are building is not just a project; investors are now beginning to grasp that restoring an ecosystem is the most direct way to build lasting wealth.”
Brazil – a blueprint for this increasingly strategic sector
As Brazil prepares to host COP30, it is increasingly recognised as a major hub for nature-based investment. The country’s progress offers a replicable model for mobilising capital at scale to support economic growth while achieving climate and biodiversity goals.
This framework is particularly relevant for nations sharing the dual challenge of high biodiversity and significant agricultural production. The trend shows signs of replication; in Colombia, for example, C4C’s deal flow analysis (based on a partial mapping of the country) has tracked USD $20.2 million in new NbS commitments and deals, the majority of which materialised in the latter half of 2024.
This blueprint’s global significance is rooted in hard data. Nature-based Solutions (NbS) have the potential to provide over one-third (30-37%) of the climate mitigation needed by 2030 to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. For Brazil, with 74% of its GHG emissions tied to land use, NbS is the most obvious mitigation pathway. Analyses from institutions like WRI Brazil indicate that actions in the land-use and forestry sector — such as halting deforestation and scaling restoration — could deliver over 90% of the mitigation required for the country to meet its 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
