By GenZero, Boeing and Abatable
The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is fast becoming one of the world’s most important compliance carbon markets. As airlines prepare to meet their 2024–2026 First Phase obligations, the scheme faces a supply challenge: demand for CORSIA-Eligible Emission Units (CEEUs) is expected to grow significantly, while available global supply remains limited.
ASEAN could play a central role in helping to address this supply gap and seize the socioeconomic upside. The region is home to a growing aviation market and significant potential to supply CORSIA-eligible units. While ASEAN already hosts eligible CORSIA supply today, further potential could be unlocked from projects that are aligned with CORSIA requirements but still require host country authorisation. Over the longer term, the region’s project pipeline could deliver hundreds of millions of additional units, creating economic value for host countries while supporting broader climate and development co-benefits.
Developed by GenZero, Boeing and Abatable, this report examines the state of CORSIA supply and demand in ASEAN, the role of Article 6 authorisations, and the practical steps needed to translate the region’s potential into a functioning, high-integrity market. Drawing on analysis of over 5,300 carbon projects, modelled supply and demand across the region to 2035, airline interviews, and input from governments, registries, project developers, intermediaries and insurance providers, the report sets out recommendations for governments, airlines and market stakeholders.
Key takeaways include:
- ASEAN could help close the CORSIA supply gap. The region currently hosts four eligible projects with 2.6 million issued credits. A further 54 projects already meet CORSIA’s technical requirements but are awaiting government authorisation, while a pipeline of 100 new projects could add hundreds of millions of units by 2035.
- The economic opportunity is significant.With the right policy frameworks in place, ASEAN member states could generate up to US$8.5 billion and 32,000 jobs over the next decade from supplying eligible carbon credits to CORSIA. It will also lead to investment into the region, in addition to other critical sustainable development benefits.
- Regional demand is also expected to grow. ASEAN-based airlines are expected to require 17 to 18 million CEEUs during CORSIA’s First Phase. With the right authorisations in place, regional supply could help meet ASEAN airlines’ own compliance needs, while also contributing to global CORSIA demand.
- Host country authorisation is a critical unlock. For carbon credits to be used under CORSIA, host countries would need to authorise the units and apply corresponding adjustments to avoid double counting against their Nationally Determined Contributions. Strengthening Article 6 readiness, institutional processes and cross-ministerial coordination will be key.
- Airlines can also take steps to engage in the CORSIA market. Early engagement, pilot transactions, clearer procurement strategies, staggered purchasing and demand aggregation can help airlines prepare for compliance, while supporting the development of additional supply.
- Regional coordination will matter. ASEAN member states can work together to facilitate CORSIA-eligible supply, identify priority project types, build market capacity, and support both aviation compliance and national climate goals.
Read the full report to learn more about ASEAN’s CORSIA opportunity and the actions needed to unlock a high-integrity regional market ahead of CORSIA’s January 2028 First Phase compliance deadline.
